Now, most will say that will not happen and 3d printers are just a nerd thing, and corporate thing, well you are 100% wrong, I'd bet 10000 dollars there will a million 3d printers well before 20 years from now, I'd guess a lot more, but I'd bet there will be a million in the US within 20 years. It's the same as the Internet, I got my first internet connection when it was charged by the minute, it was stupid crazy slow, there wasn't much up there, but the potential was complete obvious to anyone that thought about it for a while. Also, there was no restrictions really, if you found a song on the internet you could download it, as the internet was composed of so few people, and the connections were so slow the damage was minimal to companies. So, it was nerds, and only nerds had it, and only nerds really cared about it, then fast forward 20 years and everyone has the internet, multiple internet plans in fact, it's everywhere, the RIAA, MPAA etc... all are crazy in trying how to protect their "property". Same thing with computers themselves, that started revolution started in 70's, as far as home pc's go, and didn't become, unnerdy until the 90's.
Point is it is going to happen, and 3d printers will be able to print multiple materials of different characteristics at the same time as well, so break the notion that the current 3d printers will be representative for very long, eventually they will also print conductive material as well, they will print spongy type material, plastics, etc.., all in one machine, and during the same build. So, you will be able to do quite a lot with one.
So, now think about it, what can be printed eventually, and what markets will that destroy or leave little left but the intellectual property, which would be the actual design specs.
Well, I've not made a list but I'll spew off some stuff.
Brushes, combs, tweezers, spoons, forks, knives, essentially every kitchen utensil, Furniture, Wall mounts, camera mounts, tablet holders, vehicle interiors, vehicle lights, vehicle body shells, clothing, shoes, christmas ornaments, every holiday ornament, mask, floor tile, floor trim, picture frames, paintings, lamps, window frames, Battery chargers, and that's what I think will be possible within 20 years, now at some point maybe within 20 years, but probably not, you will be able to print microscopic detail, which leads to printing up things like a complete relatively complicated working electronic item from your home. It sounds crazy but this will happen, I've never been more sure of anything. Now, electronics on the cutting edge, requiring nanometer detail, will be safe for some time, longer than I'm concerned with, in all likely hood, but stuff like alarm clocks, watches, single purpose electronic items will be possible.
So, what are the implications, when you can print out like 60% of the items available in Wal-mart today without leaving your house? I'll tell you what is going to happen, they are going to clamp down so hard on anybody dealing in unauthorized cad drawings it'll make your head spin, as you are talking about 100's of billions of dollars a year market here, and yeah, I know what people will say but it's cheaper to buy the mass produced version at wal-mart than the printed one, well it won't be forever, and for some things it isn't now, as in those things that gain almost there whole value from the design exclusively, like the camera mount I just printed on my 3d printer (it actually was open source, creative commons license, so I didn't break the law), well going by what other camera mounts cost it would have run me 10 bucks, I didn't use 10 dollars of plastic and electricity to make it, also if I had went to the store and purchased it, it would have cost a dollar in gas to get there, it would have taken 30 minutes of my time to go there find it and come back, but they don't even sell it locally, so I'd have to search for it on ebay, then buy it and pay 10 bucks, then wait for 3-7 days to get it. Also, I'm going to modify this camera mount now, to fit for my exact need, as in fit it to fit in my jeep perfect, fit another one to record my makerbot prints, fit another to put on my ar drone. So, my point is it's already cheaper to print some things than to buy mass produced versions, because of the cost of shipping that thing, packaging that thing, then hanging that thing on a store shelf for weeks or months waiting for the eventual buyer to come get it, so the cost isn't merely material cost when comparing to retail, also retail can't stock all the stuff people would want, ever, like a camera mount for every type of vehicle, or every RC toy, that fits them perfectly.
I tend to ramble.... but back to the theme.
I'm certain that when faced with a 100 billion dollar loss in sales or more, these manufacturers, retailers, and designers are not going to simply yield to the tide of progress, but will buy off the politicians and get sentences that are like 20 years for printing an unauthorized design, as it will be the only way to ensure a functional economy under the current model, and even the most extreme liberals aren't really ready for a real shift in the economy.
So, I guess, my point is tomorrow is just around the corner, and if one wants a place in it, one needs to see the writing on the wall well before it's not "nerdy", and the writing states "design is the money of the future", whereas today it is design, and capital to fund 100 million dollar manufacturing plants, it will eventually be primarily design only. So, position yourself is my view of the situation. I do think retail is ultimately a dead model, probably before I'm dead, there won't be a wal-mart store in existance, like they exist today. Now, there will probably be some form of grocery stores, but everything else, I doubt it, there will most likely be businesses that have very large "printers" for printing out things like boats for you, but retail, it's just a dumb concept really. Amazon? I don't know, they will have little place.
So, I'm saying developing intellectual property that you own exclusively is really the only long term path to economic security going forward, as where are the jobs when the need for retail dimishes to like 20 percent of todays level? I'll tell you where, it's in designing stuff, or making entertainment, information content for others, it's all intellectual property in the next 20 years, mark my words.
It sort of scares me a bit, the thought that someone will most likely go to jail at some point for printing an unauthorized picture frame, or broom, but it will happen, guarantee it. I think most jobs today won't exist in 20 to 30 years either, so if you aren't going to be retired in 20 years, maybe one should think about the future impact this will have, and what it would mean to you.
Well, my mind just got going again on this subject, because for the last week or so I've been printing with my makerbot 3d printer, and my mind is going nuts with all the things I could make now, and thinking about even 5 years from now, when I'm sure these printers or a new version of them will print 10 times more precisely, and faster, and cheaper. I mean I can make quite a bit of things, I've had a need for now, and to be honest while the current crop of 3d printers are pretty good, they are nothing compared to the potential, like having a 33 mhz computer, and thinking what you could do with a gigahertz, as when computers were 33 Mhz 1 gigahertz was the limit of what one could grasp. For example, I have a sony receiver that has little stupid connections on it, it will be trivial to print them now, Speaker wall mounts, they want 20 bucks for them in the store, it won't cost me 3 bucks to make my own. Actually most likely I'll find someone elses version and print or modify it. There are few things in this world I'm sure of but 3d printers being the future is one of them, and trying to get a grasp on the implications, and how to get in that game before it's overrun has me thinking.
To put it simply 3d printers of today are to what the internet was in the early 90's. Same thing will happen. It really is, just think about computers, at first only megacorps had them, same thing with 3d printers, they've had them for quite a long time, but they were super expensive, then the personal computer came, few had them or saw the point, then over time more and more and more people got them, until now it's probably considered child abuse not to have one.
Same thing people.
Well, I'm done rambling, I'm working on some designs, hehe, trying to get better at this stuff.
Here's the camera mount I printed.
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